Simple Charts

Simple Charts ( http://simplecharts.blogspot.com/) is for people who believe that Price is all inclusive and you need no more than Price itself to trade. The blog shows the Charts for various timeperiods - 1Day ( Intraday), 5 Day ( Intraday), 1 Year ( Daily), 1 Year ( Weekly). These charts for various time periods show us various Moving Averages ( Simple and Exponential) which are respected by markets everytime. This is still in development phase and future improvements are in pipeline. Happy Informed Trading  because beauty is in being simple.

Update: Now trade Bank Nifty ( http://nsebank.blogspot.com/ ) charts also on similar lines

Trading System for Making Profits in Confusing Markets

Friends, I am trying to implement an Trading Strategy proposed by Mr Bill Williams called Chaos Trading( read his book Trading Chaos: Applying Expert Techniques to Maximize Your Profits) on excel to give an insight in current confusing markets. This is an honest endeavour to understand what is the present trend and following steps which will lead to identify profitable trades. What I have done is to understand the theory through various sources ( books & websites) and present it in an easily comprehensive manner for all and sundry. I will be more than happy to receive your comments to improve this for future trading. Also, I am ready to remove this if it violates any copyright/intellectual rights issues.

Coming back to the Chaos Trading Strategy.
This trading strategy is a simple logic based strategy which tells us to first identify the trends, verify the trends, identify the trading signals, verify the trading signals and execute them if the sentiment is conducive. Seems like very easy and logical but I am amazed as to how it has been done in a very orderly manner in this trading strategy along with verifiable results.



Check out full Trading System at http://niftylivechart.blogspot.com/

Trading Tip For A Profitable Life

Are you looking for a short cut in Indian Stock Markets but were unable to find one.....

Your wait is over. No Technical Analysis , Stock Tips, Rumors. Its open out there and warrants your attention. Just five seconds before the market starts and you know how Nifty/Sensex would behave today. No speculation, its hard reality which forms the basis of what I say.

Check my post FII's - The Open Secrets You Would Like To Know on my blog Nifty Live Charts which has all the secrets which were never communicated to you before.

You will miss this post at your own risk.

Terrific or Terrible

What do you thing next week can be? The focus is Tuesday .. so is it going to be Terrific or Terrible week for Nifty and Sensex?

Learn more on the same in Mangal ya Amangal

Something to chew on

Lets dispel some myths with some hard facts. I did an analysis of Sensex for last two years data and this is what I found.

Free Live Nifty Trading Terminal

It gives me immense pleasure to share with my valued visitors that I have created a new blog Nifty Live Chart for effective short term trading for 4-5 days range. Now people like me don't have to go hunting for tips and techniques from other sites and analysts. We have it for free.

The unique part of the blog is that I have created a live technical indicator Slow Stoch which is not commonly available for free. The technique to trade with this technical indicator is that you have to BUY when the BLUE line is on the TOP of the RED line and SELL when the RED line is on the TOP of the BLUE line. If you notice the chart for Slow Stoch you will notice that it moves in cycles and thus you can easily trade the TOPS and BOTTOMS in share market.Just keep noticing the Slow stoch live indicator for the day. If positive then bullish and if negative then bearish.The best part is that it is FREE for use of my valued visitors. Try it for yourself!!!!

Charts available on this live blog includes:
5 Day Nifty Spot Interactive chart
Live Nifty Futures Chart
Live Nifty Spot and Futures Chart

Live Quotes for major global indices are also displayed on the blog.

Happy Trading!!!!

Great Site for trading

Check out this great site I came across. I found it very useful for trading. The only drawback is that it has info only on NSE stocks.

Buzzing Stocks

The best part is that it has real time data and updates every 2-3 minutes. Now you don't have to go hunting for tips. This site gives real time tips for intra day trading. To top it there is Short Term Stock picks, Medium Term Stock picks, Long Term Stock picks, all for free.

Check out the left hand bar it has all what you need for trading

My best picks are

REAL-TIME MARKET REPORTS

Intraday Stock Screener

NIFTY Dynamic Heatmap

NEWS, RESEARCH& ANALYSIS

Instant Stock Analysis
Stock Search/Screener
Search Builder

The malaise of "Stock Advisors"

I was surfing one of my favorite sites Valuenotes.com and spilled over to the new forum which was started a few days back. A common question doing rounds was "Market Crash" . I am quite surprised at the fickle mindedness of the people who are glued on to TV channels to get some "Tips" by the "Advisors". I am damn sure that these very people might have been banking on the "advisors" who were shouting on all business channels about how soon Sensex will be touching that 25000 mark. I still remember how quick people were in giving their own judgement on how Sensex would touch 20000 in 2-3 days after it touched 19000.

As in my previous article I enumerated the anomalies doing rounds in the market, I feel a desire to prick the bubbles created by the "advisors" on business channels . I would like to remind that I am not averse to such advisors but I take their advice with a pinch of salt. I'll tell you why. First things first, the "advisors" business is thriving only because the market is doing good.This point is very important and has the hidden message why you should not believe these "advisors" 100%. Have you seen any advisor who was not advocating for further investment when everything was hunky dory? I have not seen any one. This because they know that their business happens only when the market is on an upward rally. Any break in that would mean people being apprehensive and a downfall in their business. This is why all "advisors" like rallies and even when they know in their heart that something is wrong, they would still suggest investment. Today only I saw a question put up by an investor on future course of action on investment of 500 shares of Reliance Energy @ 1850's in the current market. Do you sense something wrong here? That poor investor got himself in the market at a time when the scrip was running amok. Now he is in mess because he is not clear what to do now. Who are the people who are driving such innocent people into the D-street? The "advisors" offcourse. The investor is also not so innocent because its your hard earned money and you should have given a thought when you invested at such high levels.

A piece of advice for all new gurus of stock market. Think before you invest.

A sensible take is to wait for 3 important triggers in a very short term
1. SEBI decision on P notes on Oct 25
2. RBI’s mid term review of annual policy due on 30 October 2007
3. US Fed take on interests

Any definite course of action can only be determined after these near term triggers.

Till then ... Peace Ho!

Wobbly Wednesday - Sensex,Nifty in Turmoil - October 17 2007

The last few weeks have seen what the experienced hands had not seen in their lifetime - Equity markets at all time high, Gold at 28 year high and Oil at unprecendented heights. This is an anomaly in the flow of money from one markets and other. Traditionally money moves from one market to another with the results visible from gaining and losing markets. However this time the markets had behaved as if there was no logic and only exuberance had a say on sentiments.

Time to be cautious is old gents say when such times are prevalent. Market were trading at P/E of 26 which rose from P/E of 22-23 just a few weeks back. Do fundmentals change so quickly? This creates doubts and rightly so our FM said which was taken lightly by the bulls. The bulls didn't notice that the bubble which arose from the easy liquidity comng from the Fed cut since September 18 was as hot as water on a hot pan. It can vanish as quickly as it appears on the scene.

The other side of the story was that the friendly FII's were not sentimentally attached with the stock markets and they were simply minting money where it is possible. Recent Fed cut coupled with strong rupee transaled into a money spinner for the FII's who cannot manage such returns in the recessionary US and European markets. This resulted into a slosh of hot liquidity which chases strong returns. The concerns on such liquidity was evident when all concerned with the Indian economy viz SEBI,RBI and Finance Ministry collabrated to come out with a way to control such liquidity. Todays clamp on the Participatory notes was just the kind of trigger which can prick buubles and take air out of them.

Talking about PN's or P notes action taken by SEBI is not unwarranted as some would say. SEBI has actually tried to control the quality of funds and not the inflow of funds. FII's who are still bullish on the India Story will still be interested. It's just that the regulator initated at the wrong time for the raging bulls.

However things should not be gloomy and markets are still fundamentally strong when you compare with other bubbles in the past. Japan stocks traded at an unrealistic P/E of 100
at the high of the Japanese bubble. So, we are still miles away from that kind of bubble but it is good be cautious because Precaution is better than cure.

A word of advise for the retails investors. When your doodhwala and panwalla starts investing in stock markets, its time that you make exit.

Stock Tips - Thursday 13 September 2007

Stocks with Uptrend on Thursday 13 September

Name
ABB
ACC
BAJAJAUTO
BHARTIART
DABUR
GAIL
GRASIM
HDFC
HDFCBANK
IPCL
ITC
LT
M&M
MARUTI
NATIONALU
RANBAXY
RCOM
RELIANCE
RPL
SAIL
SBIN
SIEMENS
STER
TATAPOWER
TATASTEEL
ZEEL

SENSEX

For 12/09/2007 the closing price was 15,505.3604.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Short term: Prices are moving.

Intermediate term: Prices are trending.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 15,130.33.

The projected upper bound is: 16,185.39.

The projected lower bound is: 14,853.29.

The projected closing price is: 15,519.34.

NIFTY

For 12/09/2007 the closing price was 4,496.8501.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Short term: Prices are moving.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

The projected upper bound is: 4,699.93.

The projected lower bound is: 4,299.34.

The projected closing price is: 4,499.64.



Stocks with Downtrend on Thursday 13 September

Making your money work for you

Beta
Risk is an important consideration in holding any portfolio. The risk in holding securities is generally associated with the possibility that realised returns will be less than the returns expected.

Risks can be classified as Systematic risks and Unsystematic risks.

Unsystematic risks:
These are risks that are unique to a firm or industry. Factors such as management capability, consumer preferences, labour, etc. contribute to unsystematic risks. Unsystematic risks are controllable by nature and can be considerably reduced by sufficiently diversifying one's portfolio.


Systematic risks:
These are risks associated with the economic, political, sociological and other macro-level changes. They affect the entire market as a whole and cannot be controlled or eliminated merely by diversifying one's portfolio.


What is Beta?

The degree to which different portfolios are affected by these systematic risks as compared to the effect on the market as a whole, is different and is measured by Beta. To put it differently, the systematic risks of various securities differ due to their relationships with the market. The Beta factor describes the movement in a stock's or a portfolio's returns in relation to that of the market returns. For all practical purposes, the market returns are measured by the returns on the index (Nifty, Sensex), since the index is a good reflector of the market.

I have provided Beta values ( from NSE) with volatility for many companies.A good combination can ensure stable profit

Sr. No > Security Symbol > Industry > Beta > Volatility %
1 > ABB > Electrical Equipment > 0.91 > 2.69
2 > ACC > Cement & Cement Products > 1.02 > 3
3 > BAJAJAUTO > Automobiles - 2 and 3 wheelers > 0.74 > 2.46
4 > BHARTIARTL > Telecommunication - Services > 1.11 > 1.83
5 > BHEL > Electrical Equipment > 1.13 > 2.84
6 > BPCL > Refineries > 0.66 > 1.75
7 > CIPLA > Pharmaceuticals > 0.85 > 1.94
8 > DABUR > Personal Care > 0.54 > 2.1
9 > DRREDDY > Pharmaceuticals > 0.6 > 1.3
10 > GAIL > Gas > 0.56 > 1.89
11 > GLAXO > Pharmaceuticals > 0.5 > 1.48
12 > GRASIM > Cement & Cement Products > 0.85 > 1.81
13 > AMBUJACEM > Cement & Cement Products > 0.89 > 2.24
14 > HCLTECH > Computers - Software > 0.97 > 1.92
15 > HDFC > Finance - Housing > 0.89 > 2.28
16 > HDFCBANK > Banks > 1.02 > 1.95
17 > HEROHONDA > Automohiles - 2 and 3 wheelers > 0.52 > 2.09
18 > HINDALCO > Aluminium > 0.88 > 2.85
19 > HINDUNILVR > Diversified > 0.84 > 2.71
20 > HINDPETRO > Refineries > 0.71 > 1.41
21 > ICICIBANK > Banks > 1.1 > 1.4
22 > INFOSYSTCH > Computers - Software > 0.8 > 1.67
23 > IPCL > Petrochemicals > 1.05 > 1.64
24 > ITC > Cigarettes > 0.64 > 2.35
25 > RPL > Refineries > 0.55 > 1.61
26 > LT > Engineering > 1.18 > 2.79
27 > MARUTI > Automobile - 4 wheelers > 1 > 1.41
28 > M&M > Automobile - 4 wheelers > 1.12 > 2.28
29 > MTNL > Telecommunication - Services > 0.9 > 1.94
30 > NATIONALUM > Aluminium > 0.67 > 2.96
31 > ONGC > Oil Exploration > 0.9 > 1.71
32 > STER > Metals > 1.24 > 2.89
33 > PNB > Banks > 1.32 > 2.54
34 > RANBAXY > Pharmaceuticals > 0.7 > 2.47
35 > REL > Power > 0.85 > 3.09
36 > RELIANCE > Refineries > 0.99 > 1.68
37 > SAIL > Steel & Steel Products > 1.4 > 3.28
38 > SATYAMCOMP > Computers - Software > 1.09 > 2.8
39 > SBIN > Banks > 1.26 > 2.04
40 > SIEMENS > Electrical Equipment > 1.11 > 2.35
41 > SUNPHARMA > Pharmaceuticals > 0.66 > 1.13
42 > SUZLON > Electrical Equipment > 1.1 > 2.73
43 > TATAPOWER > Power > 0.71 > 1.97
44 > RCOM > Telecommunication - Services > 1.36 > 2.17
45 > TATAMOTORS > Automobile - 4 wheelers > 1.11 > 2.22
46 > TCS > Computers - Software > 0.95 > 2.02
47 > TATASTEEL > Steel & Steel Products > 1.11 > 2.55
48 > VSNL > Telecommunication - Services > 1.11 > 1.53
49 > WIPRO > Computers - Software > 1.15 > 1.58
50 > ZEEL > Media & Entertainment > 1.11 > 2.49

Sr.no. > Security Symbol > Beta > Volatility
1 > ANDHRABANK > 0.99 > 2.44
2 > APOLLOTYRE > 0.59 > 2.79
3 > ASHOKLEY > 1.11 > 1.63
4 > ASIANPAINT > 0.4 > 1.27
5 > AUROPHARMA > 0.59 > 0.89
6 > AVENTIS > 0.39 > 1.26
7 > BANKBARODA > 1.36 > 2.32
8 > BANKINDIA > 1.67 > 2.61
9 > BEL > 1.04 > 1.49
10 > BHARATFORG > 0.89 > 1.41
11 > BIOCON > 0.59 > 2.04
12 > BONGAIREFN > 0.76 > 2.04
13 > CADILAHC > 0.51 > 1.47
14 > CANBK > 1.54 > 2.6
15 > CHENNPETRO > 0.69 > 2.15
16 > RELCAPITAL > 1.37 > 2.48
17 > ULTRACEMCO > 0.95 > 2.92
18 > CORPBANK > 1.27 > 2.52
19 > CUMMINSIND > 1.15 > 2.51
20 > INDHOTEL > 0.78 > 0.72
21 > CONCOR > 0.44 > 0.94
22 > I-FLEX > 0.58 > 1.37
23 > GMRINFRA > 1.33 > 4.83
24 > IDBI > 1.72 > 2.1
25 > IFCI > 1.7 > 3.91
26 > INGERRAND > 0.69 > 3.49
27 > IOB > 1.08 > 2.87
28 > JPASSOCIAT > 1.29 > 2.86
29 > KOTAKBANK > 0.94 > 1.9
30 > LICHSGFIN > 0.99 > 2.15
31 > LUPIN > 0.64 > 1.95
32 > MOSERBAER > 1.13 > 2.23
33 > MPHASIS > 1.1 > 2.98
34 > NICOLASPIR > 0.84 > 1.86
35 > NIRMA > 0.42 > 0.82
36 > PATNI > 0.74 > 2.26
37 > PFIZER > 0.43 > 0.81
38 > POLARIS > 1.27 > 2.09
39 > PUNJABTRAC > 0.4 > 1.51
40 > RAYMOND > 0.42 > 1.12
41 > IDFC > 1.44 > 2.81
42 > TECHM > 0.85 > 2.03
43 > SYNDIBANK > 1.33 > 2.45
44 > TTML > 1 > 2.53
45 > TVSMOTOR > 1.14 > 2.02
46 > UNIONBANK > 1.25 > 3.45
47 > UTIBANK > 1.01 > 1.6
48 > VIJAYABANK > 1.12 > 2.41
49 > INGVYSYABK > 0.71 > 2.78
50 > WOCKPHARMA > 0.75 > 1.5

Monday Blues

Good news : Bounce in US markets.Dow up on Friday

Bad news : Left Right problems over nuclear deal.

Surprise factors: Some more news on Subprime crashes from the US. Bank of Japan meet on Aug 23.


Nifty Intraday support & resistance:

S 2 3924.80
S 1 4016.40
Pivot 4093.75
R 1 4185.30
R 2 4262.65

Masters don't gamble

The masters don't gamble. \"They invest deliberately and purposefully, and they outperform the average investor as a result.\"

Markets have been going down and up. If that makes you feel queasy, here is help. \"You can achieve success in the stock market if you follow a set of well-defined investment principles and refuse to abandon them when the market acts irrationally,\"

First check if you belong to the majority in the world of investment that comprises those who want hot stock tips. \"Unwilling to learn the rudiments of investing, they invest in companies because `they\'ve been going up.\' The thrill of the action is as important to them as the profits they make.\" To them, investing is not about maximising the returns over time.

The minority are the few who study the art of investing \"in a constant effort to increase their knowledge and improve their skills.\" Kays points out that these people take time to learn what matters when buying the stocks. \"They don\'t gamble; they invest deliberately and purposefully, and they outperform the average investor as a result.\"

Stocks in news: M&M, Tata Steel, NTPC, HUL, UTV Software

· Ex-dividend:
Varun Shipping (Rs 1.50/sh), Apar Industries (Rs 2/sh), Atul (Rs 3/sh), Heritage Foods (Rs 3/sh), Parsvnath (Rs 2.50/sh) and Cyber Media (Re 1/sh)

· Results Today:
M&M, Tata Steel, HDFC, NTPC, HPCL, BEML, BHEL, Glenmark, IOC, Jet Airways, OBC, AV Birla Nuvo, Cairn India, GMR Ind, Sun TV, NALCO, India Cement, GE Shipping, DCB, Divis Labs, TTML, India Bulls Real Estate, India Infoline, I-Flex Solution, Akruti Nirman, Andhra Bank, Syndicate Bank, Torrent Power, TV Today Network, Vijaya Bank, Sical Logistics, Ajanta Pharma, Archies, Asian Paints, Jindal Steel & Power, JK Tyre, JM Financial, Nova Petro, Advanta India, Asian Electronics, Atlanta, BL Kashyap, Cambridge Sol, Crest Animations, Dishman Pharma, Easun Reyroll, Hanung Toys, Harrison Malayalam, Helios & Matheson, Inox, Maharastra Seamless, Mangalam Drugs, Mercator lines, Sical Logistic, Syndicate Bank, Voltamp, Wyeth, Balkrishna Ind, Bharti Shipyard, Classic Diamond, DCM, Dredging Corp, Gitanjali Gems, Heritage Foods, Hinduja TMT Hotel Leela, D-link Jindal Drilling ,Khaitan Nission Copper ,Nitin Spinners, Northgate, TFCI, Vijaya Bank, Eastern Silk,GMDC,ICSA India and JMC Projects

· Hindustan Unilever board approves share buyback at maximum price of Rs 230/sh up to 25% of capital

· UTV Software board approves GDR/ADR/FCCB issue up to USD 100 mn

· Binani Cement board approves investment in JV in China for manufacture of clinker/cement

· Peninsula Land board approves 1:5 stock split

· Godrej Industries board approves raising long-term resources up to USD 150 mn

· JBM Auto board approves 1:2 bonus issue

· Praj Industries board approves raising funds up to USD 125 mn for expansion, including strategic acquisition abroad; Rakesh

· Jhunjhunwala resigns as director of board

· Lloyd Electric board approves QIB issue up to Rs 200 cr

· Grasim board approves transfer of textile units at Haryana to subsidiary co

· GMR Infrastructure board approves FCCB/GDR/ADR issue up to Rs 5,000 cr

· Eicher promoters may sell majority holding along with management control to Daimler Chrysler - HT

· Renault confirmed holding talks with Bajaj Auto for small car project

· Tata Tele tower biz valued at Rs 13000 cr – TOI

· Govt has decided not to offer CDMA players 3G spectrum - ET

· IDFC buys 6.6% in Andhra Cement for Rs 25 cr - ET

· RIL may drop USD 5.2 bn gas project on pricing delays - FE

· Dish TV to roll out DTH service in cars, trains; in talks with FIIs to raise funds- BS/BL

· MTNL is losing Rs 2 cr each month as ITI failed to put up new broadband capacity in Mumbai - BS

· Baring makes 20% open offer for JRG Securities at Rs 49/sh

· Balasore Alloys board approves expansion plans with investment of Rs 1215 cr

· Paramount Communications board approves increasing FII investment limit 49%

· Petron Engineering bags Rs 49 cr order from Samsung Engineering

SWOT analysis of Indian Share market

Strengths: Senex and Nifty scrips are top made up of top performing scrips that should capture much of India's growth ove the next 10 years. Companies that stand to gain the most as Indian economy gallops at 8-9% pa.

Weakness: Illiquidity outside the scrips in futures and options may lead to large scale price manipulation in illiquid scrips and lower price realisations in such counters.
Poor Indian Accounting disclosures may lead to large scale manipulation of figures by publicly traded companies.

Opportunites: A large domestic market that is still into traditional fixed income and other government savings is all buy bound to enter the market sooner if not later.

Threats: Global Economic slowdown, Currency mismangement, High global commoditiy prices, Over valuation in Index scrips, Non liquidity in non derravatives related scrips, Change in governement focus on controlling inflation, the attitude of government relating to FII's taxation etc

Brief about SWOT Analys

A tool that identifies the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of an organization. Specifically, SWOT is a basic, straightforward model that assesses what an organization can and cannot do as well as its potential opportunities and threats. The method of SWOT analysis is to take the information from an environmental analysis and separate it into internal (strengths and weaknesses) and external issues (opportunities and threats). Once this is completed, SWOT analysis determines what may assist the firm in accomplishing its objectives, and what obstacles must be overcome or minimized to achieve desired results.


When using SWOT analysis, be realistic about the strengths and weaknesses of your organization. Distinguish between where your organization is today, and where it could be in the future. Also remember to be specific by avoiding gray areas and always analyze in relation to the competition (i.e. are you better or worse than competition?). Finally, keep your SWOT analysis short and simple, and avoid complexity and over-analysis since much of the information is subjective. Thus, use it as a guide and not a prescription.

Indian equity market - Marc Faber

An interview with Marc Faber
**
*How do you read the current correction and pull back in the Indian equity
markets?*
**
The market had risen from less than 3,000 points in 2003 to nearly 15,000
points recently. We had a 26 per cent correction in 2004, a 13 per cent
correction in 2005, and a 30 per cent correction in May-June 2006.


So far we have declined by 13 per cent from the February 11 peak (as on
March 5) and the question is obviously whether this is just a correction or
the beginning of something more serious.


Based on the position of overseas markets and international liquidity, I am
leaning toward the view that we are faced with something more serious.


*There are a lot of worries on inflation and rising interest rates in India.
These could have a negative impact on the equity as well as corporate
profits. In this scenario what is your outlook for calendar year 2007?*


It looks as if most asset markets around the world, including the Indian
stock market made a high between November 2006 and February 2007. And
whereas since 2002 the right strategy was to buy the dips, from now on
investors should sell the rebounds.


Once the Dow is down by 10 per cent, I expect the US Federal Reserve to
begin cutting interest rates and that this may lead to a sharp rebound in
stock prices around the world.


However, I doubt that we shall make new highs. So, my expectation is for the
present downturn to last for between one and three months.


This will be followed by a strong rebound, which will then give way to
renewed weakness in the second half of the year. I may add that India, while
having a great potential, is certainly not problem-free with inflation
accelerating and a not particularly investor-friendly Budget!


*Would you agree that India is witnessing a secular bull run, which could
last for many years or will it deflate?*


It is possible that India and also other emerging markets are in a secular
bull market. However, we should keep in mind that India rose from the lows
in 2003 to its recent high by almost five times.


Valuations are not compelling when compared to other markets and when
compared to local interest rates. Moreover, even if the secular bull market
story is correct, which I somehow doubt, big intermediate corrections or
even bear markets can interrupt this glowing scenario.


*How do you see global liquidity going forward?*


Global liquidity, coming principally from the US current account deficit, is
still there. But it is no longer expanding at an accelerating rate.


Moreover, we have some illiquidity that developed in the US sub-prime
lending sector. This means, in my opinion, across the board tighter lending
standards - leading to less liquidity. It is not the Fed that tightened
liquidity, but the market place.


*What will be its impact on global stock markets in general and India in
particular?*


When liquidity expansion slows down usually some problems occur in asset
markets. Moreover, nothing boosts liquidity as much as rising asset prices.
It is when asset prices decline that liquidity can vanish very quickly.


*What is your advice for the retail investor in India?*


My advice is to sell at any rebound.


*Where do you think the commodity cycle is headed, especially gold?*


Since all asset prices including real estate, equities, bonds, commodities,
art, and even the prices of mistresses increased in value since October
2002, I would expect in an environment of relative tighter liquidity all
asset prices to decline - even precious metals.


*Gold ETFs have recently been introduced in the Indian market. Could you
please share your experience and whether retail investors should look at
them?*


I am still positive about gold and silver in the long run. However, a better
buying opportunity should occur over the next three months.


*Do you see any particular investment themes, which can work over the next
two-three years in India?*


I think the key will be to avoid losing money. I like cash and possibly
bonds should do okay in India.


*Do you see Indian markets as over-valued compared to other emerging
markets?*


I am not sure the word "overvalued" is correct, but certainly the market is
"overstretched" and vulnerable to a 30 per cent or 40 per cent decline.


*In a rising interest rate scenario, how do you look at Indian real estate
prices? And investing in real estate companies?*


There has also been a lot of speculation in real estate and I would be
somewhat careful at this point. I would avoid real estate companies for now.


*Oil is no more boiling, but the opinion is still divided on its direction.
What are your expectations for this year?*


Since I expect the global economy to slow down, oil may correct down to
$45-55 per barrel. Long term, I am positive.


*And its impact on Indian economy?*


Declining prices are moderately favourable, but since I expect prices to
eventually rise significantly, I would think that it will add to the current
account deficit and to inflationary pressures.


*Indian metal companies have acquired companies abroad recently. What is
your view on the valuations and the synergies? How should investors look at
these deals?*


I am not sure that these acquisitions are timely and wise. I would not buy
these companies and focus on India, which has a higher growth potential.
http://groups.google.co.in/group/aiii/browse_thread/thread/e5ea698dac47246e/2ca8fc4effedadcb?lnk=st&q=real+estate+stock+india&rnum=3&hl=en#2ca8fc4effedadcb