Tuesday, October 23, 2007

The malaise of "Stock Advisors"

I was surfing one of my favorite sites Valuenotes.com and spilled over to the new forum which was started a few days back. A common question doing rounds was "Market Crash" . I am quite surprised at the fickle mindedness of the people who are glued on to TV channels to get some "Tips" by the "Advisors". I am damn sure that these very people might have been banking on the "advisors" who were shouting on all business channels about how soon Sensex will be touching that 25000 mark. I still remember how quick people were in giving their own judgement on how Sensex would touch 20000 in 2-3 days after it touched 19000.

As in my previous article I enumerated the anomalies doing rounds in the market, I feel a desire to prick the bubbles created by the "advisors" on business channels . I would like to remind that I am not averse to such advisors but I take their advice with a pinch of salt. I'll tell you why. First things first, the "advisors" business is thriving only because the market is doing good.This point is very important and has the hidden message why you should not believe these "advisors" 100%. Have you seen any advisor who was not advocating for further investment when everything was hunky dory? I have not seen any one. This because they know that their business happens only when the market is on an upward rally. Any break in that would mean people being apprehensive and a downfall in their business. This is why all "advisors" like rallies and even when they know in their heart that something is wrong, they would still suggest investment. Today only I saw a question put up by an investor on future course of action on investment of 500 shares of Reliance Energy @ 1850's in the current market. Do you sense something wrong here? That poor investor got himself in the market at a time when the scrip was running amok. Now he is in mess because he is not clear what to do now. Who are the people who are driving such innocent people into the D-street? The "advisors" offcourse. The investor is also not so innocent because its your hard earned money and you should have given a thought when you invested at such high levels.

A piece of advice for all new gurus of stock market. Think before you invest.

A sensible take is to wait for 3 important triggers in a very short term
1. SEBI decision on P notes on Oct 25
2. RBI’s mid term review of annual policy due on 30 October 2007
3. US Fed take on interests

Any definite course of action can only be determined after these near term triggers.

Till then ... Peace Ho!

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Wobbly Wednesday - Sensex,Nifty in Turmoil - October 17 2007

The last few weeks have seen what the experienced hands had not seen in their lifetime - Equity markets at all time high, Gold at 28 year high and Oil at unprecendented heights. This is an anomaly in the flow of money from one markets and other. Traditionally money moves from one market to another with the results visible from gaining and losing markets. However this time the markets had behaved as if there was no logic and only exuberance had a say on sentiments.

Time to be cautious is old gents say when such times are prevalent. Market were trading at P/E of 26 which rose from P/E of 22-23 just a few weeks back. Do fundmentals change so quickly? This creates doubts and rightly so our FM said which was taken lightly by the bulls. The bulls didn't notice that the bubble which arose from the easy liquidity comng from the Fed cut since September 18 was as hot as water on a hot pan. It can vanish as quickly as it appears on the scene.

The other side of the story was that the friendly FII's were not sentimentally attached with the stock markets and they were simply minting money where it is possible. Recent Fed cut coupled with strong rupee transaled into a money spinner for the FII's who cannot manage such returns in the recessionary US and European markets. This resulted into a slosh of hot liquidity which chases strong returns. The concerns on such liquidity was evident when all concerned with the Indian economy viz SEBI,RBI and Finance Ministry collabrated to come out with a way to control such liquidity. Todays clamp on the Participatory notes was just the kind of trigger which can prick buubles and take air out of them.

Talking about PN's or P notes action taken by SEBI is not unwarranted as some would say. SEBI has actually tried to control the quality of funds and not the inflow of funds. FII's who are still bullish on the India Story will still be interested. It's just that the regulator initated at the wrong time for the raging bulls.

However things should not be gloomy and markets are still fundamentally strong when you compare with other bubbles in the past. Japan stocks traded at an unrealistic P/E of 100
at the high of the Japanese bubble. So, we are still miles away from that kind of bubble but it is good be cautious because Precaution is better than cure.

A word of advise for the retails investors. When your doodhwala and panwalla starts investing in stock markets, its time that you make exit.

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